Moat Investor

Whole Foods (WFMI) Jumps

Did you see what Whole Foods Market, Inc. (WFMI) did today? Even more importantly, have you been tracking this stock and have you seen what would have happened if you got in when Phil Town’s tools said to get in?

Now, I dont always think the tools are perfect. I tend to jump earlier on certain stocks and I miss out on some of the higher returns. And as a specific example, Guitar Center (GTRC), which I think is a great, solid stock, doesn’t follow the tools very well.

Whole Foods does, lets take a look.

If you had bought at the highest price on the day Phils tools turned positive, you would have bought in on January 30, 2007 at $44.84 per share. Today, Whole Foods closed at $52.11. That is a 16%+ return in less than a full month. Boom. Done for the year. How great is that?

Confession time. Want to know what I did wrong? I didnt listen to the tools and I moved a lot into Panera (PNRA), because I believe that Panera is so grossly undervalued that it can only go up. Long term, I think I understand the room Panera has more than I do Whole Foods, so I have no regrets. And Panera has returned. But I stuck it out even though the tools said to sell and thus didnt have the cash to take advantage of this quick move. Panera will likely bump on down in the next move providing a window to re-enter on the guidance of the tools. I could have cashed in on the short-term bounce of Whole Foods and then waited for a great entry point on Panera.

No regrets. Missing out on a huge jump like that makes you think things over, but I still believe Panera is a safer long-term bet.