Monday, July 16th, 2007
So I just ran a report of the Moat Investor stock watch list today, and it is up 17.8% since January 3, 2007. That is roughly 35% annualized. I’m pretty happy about that to say the least. At that rate it would only take $27 per month to reach $1m in 20 years time. Better yet, that kind of return would turn a $10,000 investment on January 3 into an $11m portfolio in 20 years. I know what you’re thinking: How do I get my hands on the Moat Investor watch list for free? Read on and you’ll find out.
Turning $10,000 into $11m
Is that sustainable? I’d be crazy to tell you it was, since that kind of return is in the Warren Buffet league, not the stock investor blogger league. Then again, this blog is about studying the habits of Buffet, the ultimate value investor. If you had invested $10,000 with Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, you would now have $30m.
There is only one way to invest if you’re a fan of Warren Buffet, and that is in value. That is what Moat Investor is all about – studying the art of finding great companies, buying their stock below market value, holding them for the long haul but also knowing when to cut bait.
The problem I’ve found is that Read the rest of this entry »
Friday, July 13th, 2007
Are you intersted in investing in gold because you’re afraid of impending inflation? Goldline international is offering a free information pack on gold investing. They have promised no ads, no spam, and they are a reputable company that has been in business since 1965. Visitors to the link below can receive a Free Investor’s Kit on Gold and Silver Investing, read articles on investing in precious metals.
Moat Investor doesn’t follow gold and precious metals, so this is a good source for you to add to your reading list.
Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, noted investment analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, explained why gold remains in a strong bull market in a June 15 commentary entitled, “A Unique Era.” After reviewing gold’s past performance (up 158% in the last six years), the Adens wrote: “We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2,000 and it’ll probably go even higher… Essentially, the perfect storm is gathering. That’s the big picture and it’s by far the most important. If you understand this and invest based on what’s happening, we feel strongly that you’ll continue to be well rewarded in the years ahead.”
It’s free and there’s no spam, so if you don’t sign up you’re shortchanging yourself. Check out the following:
Wednesday, July 11th, 2007
Interested in global value investing? You can get a transcript of Tom Russo’s keynote at the 2006 Value Investor Conference. Perhaps not very timely, but worth reading.
What does Russo want in a global value investment?
Russo looks for companies with strong cashflow characteristics, where large amounts of “free†cash flow are generated. Portfolio companies tend to have strong balance sheets and a history of producing high rates of return on their assets. The challenge comes in finding these obviously desirable situations at reasonable or bargain prices.Â
Russo’s investment approach is focused on a small number of industries in which companies have historically proven to be able to generate sustainable amounts of net free cash flow. (These industries typically have included food, beverage, tobacco and broadcasting/media.) This fairly narrow approach reflects his training and discipline at the Sequoia Fund in New York, where he worked from 1984 to 1988. Mr. Russo tries to limit risk by not paying too large a multiple of a company’s net free cash flow in light of prevailing interest rates. He attempts to broaden this otherwise narrow universe by including companies with smaller market capitalizations and companies in similar industries based abroad.
Wednesday, July 11th, 2007
Sometimes an opportunity is just too good to be true. Such may be the case with the eagerly anticipated Tyco (TYC)Â Spinoffs.
Tyco is a ginormous conglomerate with it’s hands in everything from fire extinguishers and security to health care to electronics to sprinkler and valve fittings. Tyco is splitting into three businesses in an effort to pump up falling share prices. It’s a case of the parts being worth more than the whole. And it doesn’t hurt that Dennis Kozlowski is behind bars.
Spinoffs are a common strategy of late and many investors salivate at the opportunity to buy into a leaner, meaner company early on. Read the rest of this entry »
Thursday, March 15th, 2007
Apple looks good to me, but despite several requests from readers, I haven’t finished my analysis yet. That will be forthcoming. In the meantime, consider these nuggets:
Apple grew 450% since 2003. In that same period Microsoft grew 40% and Google grew 350%.
Apple has five huge product launches on deck including a new operating system, an Apple TV, a fully-fledged video iPod and of course, the much anticipated iPhone. Other companies would kill to have the potential growth from any single one of those products.
Apple has 85% of the download music market — a cosiderable moat created by a great user experience and huge brand leverage. Couldn’t they see 20% growth in each of those new products? Maybe a lot more.
This stock could be severely undervalued if someone can get to the bottom of the real future growth — and we’re going to try to give that to you.
Wednesday, March 14th, 2007
A recent question on everyone’s mind today is what do I do when the market plunges?
1. Don’t panic. Moat Investors take the long view of value. That’s why you waited for a margin of safety.
2. Spend extra time with your watch list. You can subscribe to our feedburner feed and get a link to download our watch list if you’re curious. Some of your watched stocks might now have the marfin of safety you seek.
3. Check your fubdamentals. If you’re invested in a stock that is falling, check to see if something has changed that would cause you to dump it, or is it just part of a short-term trend. Look at insider trading, management changes, changes in strategy, etc.
Likely you’ll find that plunges are not reason to panic but opportunities to find great bargains.
Saturday, March 10th, 2007
Controlled Greed is offering you a $200 off coupon for the 2007 Value Investing Congress West. It’s worth going over to check out the post. Before you go, don’t forget to get our free, yet prized watch list by subscribing to our RSS feed.
There are some good speakers on the list, including Whitney Tilson and Robert Hagstrom of Legg Mason. It’s in Hollywood, and I know some of you are in Los Angeles, so check it out.
Friday, March 9th, 2007
Moat Investor is publishing our prized Watch List for free. You read that right. Free. Save yourself hundreds of hours of research by taking a candid peek at the companies we are currently watching. Just subscribe to our RSS feed by clicking one of the Feedburner links in the right margin and you will find a link to the Moat Investor Watch List in the feed at the bottom of each story.
What do I have to do to get the watch list? Do I have to link to you? Do I have to comment? Do I have to climb to the top of a tall mountain and scream “I love you, Moat Investor?”
Nope. Although any of those things would be nice if you feel compelled to do them.
Just subscribe to our feed. Subscription is free and easy. If you’ve never done it before, Feedburner will walk you through the process. Click on the “Subscribe” links in the right column and you’ll be on your way to the link to the watch list.
Or click here.
What are you waiting for. It’s free. The Watch List has real value stocks with great ROIC, great sales growth, great EPS growth and other strong fundamentals.
Subscribe now.
Monday, March 5th, 2007
I find it very motivating to have specific goals in mind when planning my investments. Lets face it, being a Moat Investor is not easy, although the rewards can be great. As you know, the key to great Moat Investing is to pick a very limited number of companies that you believe in and then invest heavily in them when you believe they are undervalued. This is just the opposite of what you have been trained to do by the mutual fund companies. The mutual fund companies want you to believe that investing is hard and very dangerous. They want you to believe that individual investors cannot succeed in the mysterious world of high-finance. Actually, they want you to be so afraid of losing your shirt that you run out and buy a bunch of mutual funds.
Now, I have nothing against diversification, per se, especially if you do not want to take the time to learn Moat Investing. But just be prepared to watch them gimp along as my 401k did for years with returns in the single digits. Sure, diversification is the right strategy if you want to go on auto-pilot and let someone else determine your fate. But if youre willing to put in the time researching the right companies, you will do much better investing on your own than you will plopping your money into a mutual fund.
You must, I believe, set your own investment goals. You need something to return to when you’re spending extra hours researching stocks and before you’ve made your first exciting gains. Here are some typical goals that many Moat Investors are working toward: Read the rest of this entry »
Tuesday, February 27th, 2007
Allow me to reiterate the value of the technical trading tools. As I posted in my last article this morning regarding Panera, the price dipped below the 10-day moving average, the MACD went negative and the slow stochastic (14/5) went negative, giving us a clear “get out now” signal. I still believe there was profit taking in the works, as I actually got out a couple days before in anticipation (using a slight faster and thus more conservative use of the tools). But, sensing a drop, I posted the article suggesting that you get out and wait. If it wasn’t profit taking, perhaps something else was in the works.
Then I began, as I always do when I have cash sitting in my account, looking at my watch list. Note: these are not to be construed as picks or suggestions, these are simply a small sample of the stocks I’m tracking and researching right now. Look what happened to the stocks on the list:
PNRA -2.23
GTRC -2.56
MA -1.06
CHS -0.50
INFY -3.70
WIT -1.04
WFMI -2.30
RRGB -1.13
JOSB -1.54
BBBY -1.85
LOW -1.08
FDS -2.06
BEBE -0.79
FAST -1.24
URBN -1.13
ANF -2.35
CKR -0.83
APOL -0.92
My first thought was, “yippee, maybe it’ll soon be time to get back into Guitar Center or MasterCard.” Then I started seeing a pattern emerge. As the day went on, all of my watch list stocks had dropped. A lot. Plummeted is a more accurate word.
It turned into a market-wide sell-off that has wiped out the gains of the entire year. But I’ve got no worries. Why? Because as the panicky investors move their money into the bond market, we’ll be given a feast of value opportunities in the coming month. And, oh yeah, the tools told me to get out and so I made a small profit instead of taking a beating today.
